2016 Election: What changed from 2012?

There’s been quite a bit of media spin on “how Trump won.” Here are the simple facts based on the exit survey data used by almost every major network.

Something to consider: how do the facts square with the reporting you hear from your sources? Are you getting the truth or an echo chamber?

Here are a few tidbits from the table below that so far I have not seen emphasized in the media (“R” and “D” are Republican / Democrat):

  • Race: R had less support from Whites (by 1%) but D lost even more; R had much more support from Blacks and Hispanics
  • Religion: the biggest R gains were among Hispanic Catholics and people of non-Christian faiths
  • Overall: from 2012 to 2016, D lost support in every group (Race, Gender, Religion) other than Jews and Mormons.

A comparison of US Presidential Election Demographics, 2012 vs 2016

D chg
White59/39 +2058/37 +21+1-2
Black6/93 -878/88 -80+7-5
Hispanic27/71 -4429/65 -36+8-6
Women44/55 -1142/54 -12-1-1
Men*+753/41 +12+5
Protestant57/42 +1558/39 +18+3-3
Catholic48/50 -252/45 +7+9-5
(White Catholic)59/40 +1960/37 +23+4-3
(Hispanic Catholic)21/75 -5426/67 -41+13-8
Jewish30/69 -3924/71 -47-8+2
Other Faith23/74 -5129/62 -33+18-12
No Affiliation26/70 -4426/68 -42+2-2
White Evangelical78/21 +5781/16 +65+8-5
Mormon78/21 +5761/25 +36-21+4
All numbers in the first two columns are: R%/D% +/- % difference
*2012 details not provided for men

How the faithful voted (Pew Research)
Behind Trump’s victory (Pew Research, Edison Exit Poll for National Election Pool: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP)